SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate at Highs, Supply Constraints and Demand Divergence in a Tug of War [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On October 15, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) showed a consolidating trend during the day session, closing at 281,710 yuan/mt in the afternoon, down 0.15% from the previous day. In overseas markets, LME tin closed up $210 at $35,500/mt, maintaining a sideways trend, indicating short-term adjustment pressure in the global tin market.

From a supply and demand fundamental perspective, the tin market currently exhibits a "tight supply, divergent demand" pattern. On the supply side, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar remains slow, falling short of expectations, leading to low levels of imported tin ore. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government's recent crackdown on illegal mining activities has heightened market concerns about the stability of global tin ore supply.

The impact of the macro front on tin prices is significant. The escalation of Sino-US trade friction has sparked market worries, with the threat of the Trump administration planning to impose hefty tariffs comprehensively on Chinese goods exacerbating uncertainty in the global trade environment, leading to increased risk-off sentiment and capital outflow from the commodity markets. Concurrently, risks of a US government "shutdown" and the delayed release of the US September CPI report have further heightened market uncertainty, intensifying volatility in commodity prices. These macro risk factors have prompted some bulls to take profits, putting pressure on tin prices.

Short-term outlook, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 272,000-286,000 yuan/mt. On one hand, the tight supply pattern is difficult to alleviate quickly, with slow production resumptions in Myanmar and policy uncertainty in Indonesia providing a floor support for tin prices

; on the other hand, macro risks coupled with divergent performance on the demand side will limit the upside for tin prices.